A Look at My Pre-Season Predictions

On April 5, I made 15 Bold predictions about the 2009 Cubs season. Let's see how I did:

1) Carlos Zambrano will throw a perfect game. WRONG, didn't really come close.

2) The Cubs will have three 20 game winners: Z, Demp, and Lilly. WRONG; The Cubs had zero 20 game winners. Dempster had 11, Lilly had 12, and Zambrano had just 9.

3) The Cubs will have three guys that hit 30 homers: Rami, Sori, and DLee. WRONG: Lee was the only Cubs to reach the 30 mark at 35: Ramirez had just 15 and Soriano had 20.

4)Kosuke will be the comeback player of the year. WRONG: Fukudome hit just .259 this season, nothing to write home about.

5)Alfonso Soriano will become the 16th player in MLB history, and the first since 2003, to hit 4 HR in one game. WRONG: Did he even hit 4 homers the whole season?

6) Rich Harden will have a 20 K game. WRONG: Harden had 11 strikeouts against the Marlins on July 31 and that was the most he sent down in one game this year.

7) Ryan Theriot will win the batting title. WRONG: Theriot's .284 average put him at 29th in the NL.

8) Mike Fontenot will be the team MVP. WRONG!!: Fontenot hit just .236.

9) Kevin Gregg will be a remarkable closer and stay in that role all year long. Wrong: Gregg blew 7 saves and on Aug. 18 he was removed from the closer's role and was replaced by Carlos Marmol.

10) Marmol will have the best team ERA. Angel Guzman finished first in team ERA. Marmol was also behind Grabow, Lilly, and Wells.

11) David Patton will be the NL Rookie of the Year. Wrong: Patton had a 6.83 ERA in 20 games.

12) Jeff Samardzija will be brought up from AAA and stuck in the rotation by the end of the year, and won't leave the Cubs rotation for many years to come. Well Samardijza did end the year in the rotation, but I doubt that he will be a fixture, however this prediction is still alive...

13) Kerry Wood will spend most of the year on the DL. Wrong: He did spend some time on the DL, but not most of the season.

14) Mark DeRosa will destroy the Cubs in the 3-game set with the Indians. WRONG: Mark had just one hit in the series.

15) Milton Bradley will play 140 games in the outfield and lead the team in OBP. WRONG: He played in just 124 games and was 4th on the team in OBP. WRONG: Bradley played in just 124 games and was 4th on the team in OBP.

Well: Zero out of 14! (not counting the Samardzija prediction as right or wrong.)

Next, I did an over/under of each player's last year's stats, starting with home runs.

Name Name: Prediction, CORRECT/WRONG (real amount)
Derrek Lee: Over 20, CORRECT (35 homers)
Ryan Theriot: Over 1, CORRECT (7)
Aramis Ramirez: Over 27, WRONG (15)
Kosuke Fukudome: Same 10, WRONG (11)
Geovany Soto: Under 23, CORRECT (11)
Alfonso Soriano: Over 29, WRONG (20)
Reed Johnson: Under 6, CORRECT (4)
Mike Fontenot: Over 9, EXACTLY 9- WILL NOT COUNT
Carlos Zambrano: Under 4, EXACTLY 4- WILL NOT COUNT
Micah Hoffpauir: Over 2, CORRECT (10)
Koyie Hill: Over 0, CORRECT (2)
Milton Bradley: Over 22, WRONG (12)
Aaron Miles: Under 4, CORRECT (0)
Joey Gathright: Same 0, CORRECT

So in homeruns I was correct 8/12 that counted, that's 66%.

Starting Pitcher Win Totals:
Ryan Dempster: Over 17, WRONG (11)
Ted Lilly: Under 17, CORRECT, 12
Carlos Zambrano: Over 14, WRONG (9)
Rich Harden: Same 10, WRONG (9)
Sean Marshall: Over 3, SAME- WILL NOT COUNT
So just 1 of 4 starting pitchers: 25%.

Batting Averages:
Derrek Lee: Under .291, WRONG (.306)
Ryan Theriot: Over .307, WRONG (.284)
Aramis Ramirez: Over .289, CORRECT (.317)
Kosuke Fukudome: Over .257, CORRECT (.259)
Geovany Soto: Under .285, CORRECT (.218)
Alfonso Soriano: Over .280, WRONG (.241)
Reed Johnson: Under .303, CORRECT (.255)
Mike Fontenot: Under .305, CORRECT (.236)
Carlos Zambrano: Over .337, WRONG (.217)
Micah Hoffpauir: Under .342, CORRECT (.239)
Joey Gathright: Over .254, NO COUNTED, ONLY 14 CUBS GAMES
Milton Bradley: Under .321, CORRECT (.257)
Aaron Miles: Under .317, CORRECT (.185)

So my results were pretty good in batting averages, I got 8/12 for a 66%.

ERAs:
Ryan Dempster: Over 2.96, CORRECT (3.65)
Ted Lilly: Under 4.09, CORRECT (3.10)
Carlos Zambrano: Under 3.91, CORRECT (3.77)
Rich Harden: Over 1.77, CORRECT (4.09)
Sean Marshall: Over 3.86, CORRECT (4.32)
Carlos Marmol: Under 2.86, WRONG (3.41)
Neal Cotts: Around the Same as 4.29, NOT COUNTED
Jeff Samardzija: Over 2.28, CORRECT, (7.53)
Chad Gaudin: Same 6.26, TRADED BEFORE SEASON
Angel Guzman: Under 5.59, CORRECT (2.95)
Aaron Heilman: Under 5.21, CORRECT (4.11)
Kevin Gregg: Under 3.41, WRONG (4.72)
Luis Vizcaino: Over 5.28, NOT COUNTED

On predicting pitchers ERAs, I got 8/10, 80%!

Overall on predicting individual Cubs players stats I got 25/38 right, or 65.8%.

Let's Move on to MLB Divisions and World Series:
NL Central: Cubs WRONG
NL West: Dodgers CORRECT
NL East: Phillies CORRECT
AL Central: Indians WRONG
AL East: Yankees CORRECT
AL West: Angels CORRECT
World Series: Cubs Over Indians WRONG

So I predicted 4/6 divisions correctly for a 66.7%.

You gotta love looking back a pre-season picks!

I'll have a full rumor post up for you sometime tomorrow, and there's a Former Cub Playoff Preview on the way as well!