Numbers Breakdown: The Cubs Bullpen

Esmalin Caridad is on the road to recovery, which means one Cubs reliever will be sent to AAA. The Cubs have a lot of candidates who have been riddled by inconsistency, but let's take a look at the numbers and see who should be sent down.

2010 ERA
Carlos Marmol: 0.66
Sean Marshall: 2.40
Justin Berg: 3.27
James Russell: 3.86
Jeff Gray: 6.14
Carlos Zambrano: 6.29
John Grabow: 8.38
*Note: Caridad's ERA in 4 games before the injury was 18.90.

So there's no doubt that Grabow should be the one removed from the pen, but since he cannot be sent to AAA, Gray will most likely get sent down. James Russell has been nothing special, so he could be sent down as well if there is someone else to be called up.

Here are a list of candidates based on ERA in Iowa:
Blake Parker: 1.46
Thomas Diamond: 1.65
Jeff Samardzija: 2.08
Jay Jackson: 2.31
Mitch Atkins: 3.00

Either Diamond or Parker should be called up!

Remember, the number's don't lie!

The State of the Bullpen

I covered the bullpen some in yesterday's post, but unfortunately technical difficulties prevented me from posting that story. So today, let's talk a little bit about the Cubs' relief core.

Carlos Marmol is the closer. He is of the utmost importance to this ballclub because they already lack bullpen depth. As of now, there would be nobody to take over for Carlos if he goes down or struggles.

But instead of thinking about "What ifs..." let's face the situation the pen is in right now. With the injury to Angel Guzman, the already thin bullpen lost a significant arm. Marmol will be the Cubs closer, John Grabow will be the primary left handed setup man, and beyond that there's a gray area. Lou Piniella has showed confidence in Esmalin Caridad, who pitched well late last year when he received a callup. Lou says that Caridad has made the club as a setup man. Whoever is left out of the rotation of the group of Samardzija, Marshall, and Gorzelanny will fill the 4th spot in the bullpen. That leaves three slots open.

Jeff Gray, who came to the Cubs in the deal that shipped Fox and Miles to Oakland this winter, is out with a groin injury and will probably not be ready to start the regular season.

So these final three spots could be filled with young pitchers that are in camp, or the Cubs could look to add a veteran presence to the bullpen by going outside the organization. Bruce Levine continues to report that Jason Frasor and Luke Gregerson are options for the Cubs. Frasor worked a scoreless inning in his only spring appearance so far for the Blue Jays. Gregerson has worked 2 innings so far for the Padres and has yielded just one base runner and no runs.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports connects the Cubs to John Smoltz and Pedro Martinez. Would it be worth the injury risk to try to bring in one of these post-prime legends?

Even if the Cubs fill 1 spot with a trade or free agent signing, there will still be at least 2 bullpen openings for younger guys. Bruce Levine says that Casey Coleman, John Gaub, Jeff Stevens, and James Russell are candidates. Carrie Muskat mentions Justin Berg, Mike Parisi, and Thomas Diamond. Muskat adds that David Patton will most likely start in the minor leagues now that the Cubs have kept him on the roster long enough to keep him since the Rule V Draft in December of 2008. Carlos Silva will also vie for a spot in the bullpen if he does not make the rotation. He could start the year hidden on the DL if he does not improve upon his Cactus League debut.

Let's take a look at how some of the Cubs competing for spots in the bullpen are doing in the Cactus League:

• Andrew Cashner: 2 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 1 ER
• Casey Coleman: 4.1 IP, 4 H, 1 ER
• J.R. Mathes: 2 IP, 2 ER
• Mike Parisi: 2 IP, 1 ER
• Carlos Silva: 2 IP, 7 H, 6 ER
• Jeff Stevens: 1.2 IP, 3 H, 4 ER
• John Gaub: 1.1 IP, 1 ER
• Marcos Mateo: 1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER
• Jeff Kennard: 0.2 IP, 4 H, 4 ER
• Mitch Atkins: 0.1 IP, 0 ER

We'll see how it plays out!

Cubs avoid arb. w/ Kevin Gregg, A Look at the Bullpen Mix

The Cubs avoided arbitration with Kevin Gregg today by agreeing to a one year 4.2 million dollar contract. Gregg will be a free agent at the end of the year.

There's a lot of guys in the mix for the Cubs bullpen going into spring training:

• Jose Ascanio
• Mitch Atkins
• Justin Berg
• Neal Cotts
• Chad Gaudin
• Kevin Gregg
• Angel Guzman
• Kevin Hart
• Rich Hill
• Carlos Marmol
• Sean Marshall
• Marcos Mateo
• Garrett Olson
• David Patton
• Jeff Samardzija
• Jeff Stevens
• Luis Vizcaino
• Randy Wells
• Mike Wuertz
• Chad Fox

To break it down a little here are the guys definetly in the bullpen in my opinion:

• Jeff Samardzija
• Carlos Marmol
• Neal Cotts
• Kevin Gregg

That leaves 3 spots open. I think Marshall will be in the rotation, Olson and Hill will be on other teams. So for me it comes down to:

• Bullpen spot 4; probably Chad Gaudin in middle relief.
• Long Man: . Kevin Hart, Angel Guzman, Jeff Stevens, and David Patton are all in the mix.
• A second lefty?: The Cubs could take 2 of the guys mentioned as possible long men, but they might want a second lefty in the pen. There is a possibility that southpaw will be Olson, Marshall, or Hill. It could be someone not on my list who's in the organization like the guy from the DeRosa deal or Carmen Pignatello. Or the Cubs could add a left handed pitcher to the mix.
• Luis Vizcaino, the guy the Cubs got in the Marquis deal, could fill that 7th spot in the rotation instead of another left handed pitcher or another long man.
• Jose Ascanio, Mitch Atkins, Justin Berg, Marcos Mateo, and Randy Wells will almost certainly begin the year at AA or AAA. Chad Fox and Mike Wuertz could be headed back to the minors or could part ways with the team.

There's a lot of possibilities for the bullpen. Later in the week, I'll have a breakdown of the outfield.

Also, with the Cubs aquiring Garrett Olson the Peavy talk is heating up again. Olson is a guy that the Padres do have interest in. It is hard to say whether this deal is so the Cubs can trade for Peavy or if it is just to add an arm to the 5th starter/ bullpen mix. Some sources say Peavy is on his way out of San Diego, others say that he will be with the Padres on Opening Day. We can only wait.

The World Baseball Classic Roster Special is tonight on the MLB Network. I'll have post later with full WBC rosters.

I'll keep you posted on everything as always.