Sunday, September 27, 2009

Breaking Down the Cubs Playoff Chances

On the Brink of Elimination
The Cubbies are in a hot stretch, winning the first 3 in this 4 games series against the Giants after taking 2 of 3 in Milwaukee Mon.-Wed. However, the St. Louis Cardinals have clinched the NL Central and the Cubs' hope of advancing to the postseason is very slim to none. The Cubs are 5.5 games out with 8 left to play for them so if they take say 7 of 8 they'd need:

*Colorado to lose at least 6 of 7
*Atlanta to lose at least 5 of 8
*Florida to lose at least 3 of 7
*Giants to lose at least 1 of 7
If all this happens, the Cubs will win the Wild Card. If the Cubs can win each of the last 8 games they will need:

*Colorado to lose at least 5 of 7
* Atlanta to lose at least 4 of 8
*Florida to lose at least 2 games

If the Cubs go 6-2 in the last 8 games, they will need:
*Colorado lose out to cause tie Cubs tie
* Also, Atlanta must lose at least 3 of last 8
* Florida must lose at least 3 of last 7
* Giants must lose at least 2 of last 7

If the Cubs go 5-3 or worse, they will be eliminated.
So pretty much any combo of 3 Rockies' wins or Cubs' losses would end the Cubs playoff hope.

A few other Cubs notes:
  • The Cubs have won 6 of 7 since the suspension to Milton Bradley, and their record is now 20-10 in game in which Milton doesn't play. Coincidence?
  • Aramis Ramirez said, "The main problem (this year) was that we didn't score enough runs. If they're going to improve something, I think that's the area they need to address more." Many of the other Cubs players, Cubs fans, and Lou Piniella feel the same.
  • Derrek Lee is expected to return no latter than Tuesday with his neck spasms.

The Cubs most likely will not be playing in the postseason, but let's finish strong none the less, because a week from today, it's all over.

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