Numbers Breakdown: Final Bullpen Spot, Did Lou Make the Right Decisions?

For this Numbers Breakdown, we are going to base everything on Spring Training ERA for pitchers and Spring Training batting average for hitters because that is the only stat we really have for all these guys.

Let's start with the spots that have not yet been decided, the final spots in the bullpen:

Samardzija- 7.63 ERA
Guzman- 7.94
Patton- 1.35
Gaudin- 10.91

So, according to the Spring ERAs Samardzija and Patton should make the team. However, Lou has a lot more things to consider, such as the fact that Guzman is out of options and Samardzija has options.

Backup Catcher:
Bako- 3.64
Hill- .392

Lou agrees with the numbers, picks Hill, and is 1 for 1.

Closer:
Gregg- 0.00
Marmol- 4.50

Lou agrees with the numbers, is 2 for 2.

5th Starter:
Gaudin- 10.91
Samardzija- 7.63
Heilman- 1.89
Marshall- 4.39

Lou picked Marshall as the 5th starter, disagreeing with these numbers. He is 2-3. I do realize that Marshall had a better ERA when Lou made his mind up, but maybe he should have waited longer!

Second Baseman:
Miles- .352
Fontenot- .295

I think Lou made the right choice picking Little Babe Ruth, but the numbers don't think so. Lou is 2-4.

CF:
Kosuke- .277
Johnson- .320
Gathright- .317

Fukudome won this job before he even reported to camp. Will Fukudome hit in the regular season? Lou is 2 for 5.

So, Lou and the numbers agree in only 2 of the 5 position battles. The question is, who is wrong Lou or the numbers?

We'll find out...

but the numbers don't lie!

I'll have another numbers breakdown next weekend.
Chat Sunday at 7 PM CT.
More posts to come...